Editor’s Note: The SCM thesis Aftershock Ready: Fueling New Madrid was authored by Abdullah Alsukairi and Olivia Morton, and supervised by Tim Russell (trussell@mit.edu). For more information on this research, please contact the thesis supervisor.  

Emergency preparedness relies on fuel as an essential commodity to support evacuation and relief operations tied to natural disasters. However, fuel distribution during major disasters often falls short of demand. In the United States, average daily fuel consumption exceeds 12 million barrels, which is supported by an intricate fuel distribution system. Consequently, when demand exceeds capacity, bottlenecks result. These bottlenecks highlight the need to better understand fuel distribution systems before and during natural disasters.

This research is a case study of the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) that offers federal, state, and local strategic intervention guidelines that could be applied during and after an NMSZ seismic event.

Fuel under pressure: Modeling system gaps for seismic emergencies

U.S. gasoline demand is expected to increase 36% from 2021 to 2031. Given the market outlook, interventions are worthy of investment, regardless of a disaster event. Improvement of system capacity is a proactive measure that not only prepares the system for emergency response but also allows the system to support predicted growth in demand.

The MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab developed a fuel distribution model that has been adapted to inform fuel management strategies in the NMSZ. Within this model, operational flow capacity (OFC) analysis estimates a system’s baseline capacity and identifies which parameters can be adjusted to meet surge capacity expectations during and after an emergency.

To guide emergency fuel planning, the research focused on the following questions:

1. How can fuel distribution system analysis best support emergency planning efforts for federal, state, and local jurisdictions in the U.S. based on a future NMSZ event?
2. How could updated modeling results assist with government interventions, including policy action and improved operational efficiencies?

Stress testing fuel infrastructure for emergency events

In seismic emergency planning for the NMSZ region, interdictions — disruptions or shutdowns of critical infrastructure — are a key factor in scenario development. The likelihood and impact of any given scenario are closely tied to the magnitude and location of the seismic event, with Memphis, Tennessee, identified as a particularly high-risk area due to its proximity to the seismic center.

To strengthen fuel system resilience, the following interventions are recommended:

1. Prioritize infrastructure upgrades at high-throughput terminals, especially in:
• Memphis, Tennessee
• St. Louis, Missouri
• Little Rock, Arkansas
• Evansville, Indiana
These terminals exhibit the highest OFC and offer the most leverage for improving system resilience.

2. Increase throughput by optimizing gate and bay operations, including:
• Adding more gates or loading bays
• Reducing average loading times per vehicle

3. Expand labor and logistics support to keep up with increased fuel demands:

4. Increase staffing at terminal gates
• Expand the availability of truck drivers, particularly during extended hours of service (HoS)
• Reassess HoS regulations and scheduling flexibility in emergency contexts

5. Upgrade fuel pump infrastructure across all NMSZ terminals to:
• Improve baseline flow rates without adding labor
• Decrease truck idle time
• Maximize truck throughput and efficiency

6. Foster proactive collaboration among stakeholders, including federal, state, and private-sector partners, recognizing that seismic events offer no early warning and response efforts are often reactive by default

These targeted interventions offer high return on investment by addressing the system’s most constrained nodes and enabling faster, more efficient fuel distribution in a future NMSZ emergency.